The PD28 / Climatic Footprints project delivered several major contributions to understanding the interplay between anthropogenic climate change and natural variability.
Below are the three most important findings, each linked to its corresponding publication.
Our analysis shows that the long-term decline in Arctic sea ice is primarily driven by human-induced warming, with natural variability playing a secondary, modulating role.
This finding demonstrates that Arctic sea ice loss cannot be explained by internal variability alone.
🔗 Read the full paper in Climate Dynamics
We identified a strong connection between Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and a dipolar sea ice response, featuring opposite anomalies in the Arctic and Antarctic.
This emphasizes AMOC’s role in shaping interhemispheric climate variability and could improve predictability of polar climate change.
🔗 Read the full paper in PLOS ONE
Pacific climate modes such as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) emerged as the leading drivers of global total cloud cover variability, while anthropogenic warming provides a significant but secondary influence.
This result helps reduce uncertainty about cloud feedbacks in future climate projections.
🔗 Read the full paper in Atmosphere